my big question: draft analysis

I've often wondered just how much a Cape League season -- good or bad -- means to an individual player. That's my big question. I'm going to take a few different approaches in examining this topic. First, a look at the Cape League players picked in the first round and the compensation round of the draft last month -- and what they did when they were on the Cape.

FIRST ROUND

HITTERS

PLAYER	CAPE TEAM	PICKED	AVG	H	HR	RBI	OBP
Matt Wieters - C	Orleans	5	.307	39	8	21	.417
Matt LaPorta - OF	Brewster	7	.250	27	6	19	.394
Beau Mills - 1B	Bourne '05	13	.225	20	4	16	.314

PITCHERS

PLAYER	CAPE TEAM	PICKED	W-L	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
Daniel Moskos (L)	Cotuit '05	4	3-4	3.82	31	15	1.36
Ross Detwiler (L)*	Falmouth	6	1-0	1.74	14	3	.89
James Simmons (R)	Cotuit	26	4-2	1.18	44	5	.73
Andrew Brackman (R)*	Orleans	30	1-0	1.06	11	9	.94

* - saw limited action, for whatever reason.

Sort of a mixed-bag here, with some great numbers, some middle-of-the-road numbers and some limited duty. Wieters' summer was the classic case of an already-big prospect confirming his status with a good all-around year. He was named the league's best pro prospect. Of note for him are the eight home runs and the OBP that's more than 100 points higher than his batting average.

LaPorta played two seasons on the Cape -- first in '04 and again in '06 -- and he always flashed the power, even if the average wasn't there. Interestingly, his best year was '05 when he led the nation in home runs at Florida then had a big summer for Team USA. But when he got picked in the 14th round in '06, he decided to head to the Cape and then back to Florida for his senior year. It must have been the right choice.

Mills didn't do big things in '05 but I'm guessing he showed the tools that made scouts take notice. They remembered him, even as he couldn't make the grades at Frenso State and ended up at Lewis & Clark.

As for the pitchers, Moskos, Detwiler and Brackman showed enough on the Cape to solidify their spots. The most interesting case, though, is Simmons. He's not a flamethrower, and he's right-handed, which isn't the best combination for scouts. But he dominated the Cape League to the tune of a 1.18 ERA and 44 strikeouts against just five walks, showing more polish than any pitcher in the league. When you do that against the nation's best hitters, scouts can't ignore it. I think this is a good example of a kid using the Cape League to prove once and for all that he can do it, even if he doesn't do it in a typical manner.

COMPENSATION ROUND

HITTERS

PLAYER	CAPE TEAM	PICK	AVG	H	HR	RBI	OBP
Todd Frazier - SS	Chatham '05	34	.270	40	5	27	.343
Julio Borbon - OF	Cotuit '05	35	.205	18	0	4	.307
Kellen Kulbacki - OF	Cotuit	40	.240	36	7	18	.314
Sean Doolittle - 1B*	Harwich	41	.278	5	0	0	.278
Jackson Williams - C	Hyannis	43	.245	25	0	9	.301
Josh Donaldson - C	Harwich	48	.302	45	4	21	.382
Matt Mangini - 3B	Hyannis	52	.310	48	2	16	.370
Mitch Canham - C	Falmouth	57	.300	33	4	16	.388
Corey Brown - OF	Chatham	59	.192	25	2	16	.305
Edward Easley - C*	Chatham	61	.269	14	1	4	.333
Danny Payne - OF*	Wareham '05	64	.226	7	0	2	.368

* - saw limited action, for whatever reason.

PITCHERS

PLAYER	CAPE TEAM	PICKED	W-L	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
Brett Cecil (L)	Orleans	38	1-0	2.17	40	9	.93
Eddie Kunz (R)	Falmouth	42	0-0	1.71	22	11	1.19
Cory Luebke (L)	Falmouth	63	3-2	2.84	32	14	1.13

The conclusion from these picks is that catchers who can hit are hot commodities. Williams, Donaldson, Canham and Easley all put up good numbers at the plate, and scouts took notice.

As for some of the others, Frazier's .270 average looks better when you consider he was coming off his freshman season. That's a very good number for a freshman. The big summer in '05 helped him get an invite to Team USA in '06, which in turn, helped him move into the top of the draft. Borbon didn't do great things in '05, but he did for Tennessee in '06 and for Team USA.

Kulbacki is a guy who led the nation in home runs at James Madison and overcame a slow start to finish with seven on the Cape. The fact that he could do that against tougher competition than he faced at JMU probably helped his status.

Mangini probably helped himself the most of any player on the Cape last year. He led the league in hitting and rocketed up the list of top prospects for the draft. His Oklahoma State teammate Brown didn't help himself much, hitting just .192 for Chatham. But as is often the case, scouts can overlook the stats when they see the tools. In Brown's case, he may have gone higher in the draft with a big summer, but he still showed the scouts what they wanted to see.

As for the pitchers, both Cecil and Kunz worked exclusively out of the bullpen, giving them the opportunity to show off their arms. Scouts liked what they saw from both. Luebke wasn't rated all that high coming out of the summer after posting a 2.84 ERA, but he followed it with a huge season for Ohio State. The lefthander had a 2.07 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 117 innings.

So. I have no conclusions yet. I will hopefully do more of these, and I'll continue to look at the question: What does a Cape League season mean to a player?